COVID-19 New Case Rate vs. Proportion Infected
COVID-19 semilog phase diagram data visualisation
- The Y axis shows how quickly the epidemic is growing (up is bad), as measured by the percentage daily increase in known cases of COVID-19, averaged over the most recent four days. As noted, in some cases this may show changes in active rather than cumulative known cases.
- The X axis shows the proportion of the population infected (right is bad), on a logarithmic scale.
- The faded last seven points in each series show a one-week trend based on most recent data. Until 2020-04-07, they assumed the last rate would stay unchanged; beginning 2020-04-08 they extrapolate linearly using the values for days [D-8,D-4] and [D-4,D].
- Click the buttons to hide or show series.
- Click data points to see exact values.
- There are currently several sources of data. Which one is used depends on the menu below, and is described in more detail in the grey comment box below it.
- This page’s data is refreshed every ten minutes.
To suggest improvements or report errors, please email John Chew at poslfit@gmail.com.
Commentary
I’ve been posting commentary on Facebook about the “days to 1%” line in my Google Sheet linked above. This page contains the most recent entries.
Boilerplate explanation paragraph: The number given with each country is my own way of boiling down your region or country's growth/doubling rate and number of people infected with COVID-19 into one number. It represents the number of days you have left at your current rate of infection (averaged over the last seven days (four before 2020-08-29) before you reach 1%. It's not a forecast (your rate of change is likely to change before then, when public health authorities take positive or negative action), just one simple number that tells you how you're doing compared to others. I could have picked a bigger percentage than 1%, but you can't go too far before the exponential growth bends back down logistically, and it seemed as easy a place as any; most people can visualize the idea of 1 in 100. Starting on 2020-05-06, I stopped displaying these numbers for regions whose active case counts were known to be lower than an estimated previous peak value; in these cases, I show separately the number of days it would take the current 4-day average of exponential decay in active case counts to drop below half a person, with a floor of 14 days since the last new confirmed case, as well (starting 2020-05-14) as the current percentage of peak active cases. Starting on 2020-08-02, in regions where active cases are still increasing but more than 1% of the population has been infected, I show an estimate of how many days it will be until 40% of the population is infected, the point at which herd immunity might begin to slow down spread among survivors in the most optimistic scenario.
2021-01-09
Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: U.K. (101HI→102HI), California (113HI→114HI), Israel (131HI→125HI), Alabama (150HI→144HI), New York (144HI→144HI), Louisiana (149HI→149HI), U.S. (173HI→161HI), South Africa (199HI→191HI), Ontario (194HI→196HI), Sweden (202HI→202HI), Malta (235HI→206HI), Toronto (210HI→210HI), Canada (233HI→233HI), Norway (314HI→314HI), France (400HI→346HI), Brazil (412HI→359HI), Spain (494HI→494HI), Turkey (490HI→501HI), Mexico (536HI→515HI), Singapore (7228HI→7374HI), Malaysia (48→47), Japan (89→78), Thailand (94→96), Indonesia (117→111), New Zealand (1811→1811), Australia (2983→3581), China (13779→13779)
Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.
Much worse: Israel, Alabama, U.S., South Africa, Malta, France, Brazil, Japan, Indonesia
The same: Malaysia
Better: U.K., California, New York, Louisiana, Ontario, Sweden, Toronto, Canada, Norway, Thailand
Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Denmark (320→381, 63.8%), Iran (788→729, 61.6%), India (682→758, 22.2%), Austria (4211→1958, 27.1%), Romania (905→2515, 43.5%), South Korea (new→2622, 97.2%), Germany (728→4336, 87.3%), Italy (new→12769, 80.2%), Poland (new→323725, 52.4%)
Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (74): Marshall Islands, Samoa, Vanuatu (eradicated); Cameroon (14, 36.1%); Central African Republic (14, 1.1%); Grenada (14, 35.7%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Laos (14, 6.2%); Liberia (14, 63.0%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 27.3%); Solomon Islands (14, 38.6%); Tajikistan (14, 1.3%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Papua New Guinea (37, 20.1%); Benin (53, 9.1%); Liechtenstein (54, 39.1%); Timor-Leste (70, 40.9%); Mauritius (71, 5.9%); Djibouti (91, 1.3%); Luxembourg (102, 26.6%); Azerbaijan (117, 24.3%); Trinidad and Tobago (135, 12.3%); Mauritania (156, 51.6%); Uzbekistan (185, 10.4%); Croatia (187, 22.9%); Belize (194, 11.8%); Burundi (199, 71.9%); Moldova (260, 44.0%); Armenia (278, 25.7%); Equatorial Guinea (278, 1.9%); Saudi Arabia (285, 3.3%); Jordan (301, 17.9%); Nepal (347, 10.8%); Kosovo (357, 50.4%); Kyrgyzstan (358, 23.7%); Jamaica (369, 50.0%); West Bank and Gaza (382, 61.8%); Iraq (384, 56.2%); Georgia (385, 29.4%); Iceland (423, 10.7%); North Macedonia (423, 72.1%); Taiwan (450, 39.4%); Morocco (478, 41.1%); Niger (484, 89.2%); Madagascar (506, 5.7%); Mali (512, 89.3%); Sudan (517, 70.0%); Yemen (556, 15.3%); Sri Lanka (650, 74.3%); Libya (669, 80.8%); Peru (796, 14.1%); Paraguay (808, 83.8%); Finland (1226, 59.0%); Philippines (1293, 30.3%); Uganda (1309, 84.6%); Burma (1313, 69.5%); Angola (1565, 87.2%); Pakistan (1611, 32.1%); Ukraine (1680, 85.4%); Lithuania (1954, 95.9%); Kenya (2084, 54.8%); Belarus (2165, 72.7%); Serbia (2264, 83.0%); Somalia (3401, 82.9%); Guyana (3537, 27.2%); Bosnia and Herzegovina (3806, 88.6%); Algeria (4077, 97.5%); United Arab Emirates (4538, 93.5%); Netherlands (5116, 97.9%); Ecuador (5669, 46.9%); Bangladesh (6515, 46.0%); Hungary (7480, 83.2%); Venezuela (12230, 40.3%); Syria (15319, 97.6%)
Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (7): GU (257, 6.3%); NC (410, 77.6%); MP (453, 89.9%); MI (461, 70.0%); SD (501, 26.0%); PA (1310, 81.9%); ND (7189, 16.0%)
Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (5): NT (2, 0.0%); NS (14, 6.7%); NL (27, 3.6%); BC (362, 67.0%); AB (8832, 68.3%)
JHU new case records in most recent data: Bolivia (2263), Colombia (18221, 2-day record streak), Cuba (344), Indonesia (10617, 3-day record streak), Ireland (8227), Japan (7863, 4-day record streak), Lebanon (5440, 4-day record streak), Malawi (314, 2-day record streak), Mozambique (521), Portugal (10176), Senegal (296), South Africa (21980), United Kingdom (68192), Zambia (1029).
2021-01-08
Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: U.K. (104HI→101HI), California (113HI→113HI), Israel (131HI→131HI), New York (144HI→144HI), Louisiana (171HI→149HI), Alabama (155HI→150HI), U.S. (176HI→173HI), Ontario (208HI→194HI), South Africa (206HI→199HI), Sweden (164HI→202HI), Toronto (236HI→210HI), Canada (250HI→233HI), Malta (247HI→235HI), Norway (0→314HI), Italy (320HI→335HI), Poland (361HI→376HI), France (322HI→400HI), Brazil (450HI→412HI), Turkey (484HI→490HI), Spain (494HI→494HI), Mexico (536HI→536HI), Singapore (6990HI→7228HI), Malaysia (50→48), Japan (97→89), Thailand (89→94), Indonesia (122→117), South Korea (164→171), New Zealand (1811→1811), Australia (3089→2983)
Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.
Much worse: Louisiana, Alabama, Ontario, South Africa, Toronto, Canada, Malta, Norway, Japan, Indonesia
Worse: U.K., U.S., Malaysia
Better: California, Israel, New York, Italy, Poland, Thailand, South Korea
Much better: Sweden, France
Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Denmark (301→320, 63.5%), India (748→682, 22.2%), Germany (569→728, 86.8%), Iran (803→788, 62.4%), Romania (599→905, 42.4%), China (944→1689, 2.1%), Austria (21422→4211, 27.6%)
Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (76): Marshall Islands, Samoa, Vanuatu (eradicated); Central African Republic (14, 1.1%); Grenada (14, 35.7%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Laos (14, 6.2%); Liberia (14, 63.0%); Solomon Islands (14, 38.6%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Tajikistan (19, 3.3%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (24, 18.2%); Papua New Guinea (26, 15.0%); Benin (53, 9.1%); Timor-Leste (70, 40.9%); Mauritius (71, 5.9%); Djibouti (85, 1.3%); Liechtenstein (85, 44.7%); Azerbaijan (112, 26.5%); Luxembourg (113, 28.0%); Uzbekistan (144, 10.9%); Mauritania (150, 52.0%); Belize (161, 11.2%); Equatorial Guinea (177, 1.8%); Georgia (185, 29.3%); Croatia (189, 24.8%); Moldova (236, 45.4%); Burundi (237, 71.9%); Trinidad and Tobago (239, 14.6%); Iceland (251, 10.1%); Nepal (278, 10.8%); Armenia (282, 26.3%); Saudi Arabia (285, 3.4%); Jordan (298, 17.9%); Taiwan (305, 40.5%); Kyrgyzstan (309, 23.7%); Kosovo (317, 52.2%); Jamaica (339, 50.8%); Peru (385, 12.8%); Iraq (404, 58.2%); West Bank and Gaza (404, 64.2%); Guyana (413, 27.2%); Morocco (433, 41.1%); North Macedonia (491, 74.1%); Madagascar (506, 5.7%); Sudan (517, 70.0%); Latvia (518, 84.9%); Yemen (556, 15.3%); Sri Lanka (562, 75.8%); Mali (630, 88.5%); Libya (631, 82.4%); Guatemala (806, 36.9%); Paraguay (888, 83.1%); Belarus (1043, 74.4%); Burma (1081, 70.1%); Uganda (1123, 85.4%); Finland (1173, 56.3%); Niger (1255, 90.8%); Philippines (1360, 28.5%); Ukraine (1587, 85.2%); Pakistan (1599, 31.7%); Serbia (1886, 83.4%); United Arab Emirates (2012, 90.5%); Lithuania (3061, 95.9%); Hungary (3269, 82.4%); Somalia (3401, 82.9%); Kenya (3533, 55.3%); Bulgaria (3849, 82.2%); Algeria (4153, 97.7%); Syria (4557, 97.5%); Netherlands (4798, 98.1%); Bangladesh (5143, 46.1%); Venezuela (7731, 40.1%); Ecuador (10609, 44.5%); Belgium (44743, 65.6%); Kazakhstan (156179, 58.8%)
Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (8): GU (198, 6.1%); NC (486, 70.1%); PA (551, 80.7%); PR (629, 66.6%); SD (778, 27.1%); MT (1807, 24.4%); OH (3395, 77.4%); ID (21528, 97.0%)
Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (5): NT (4, 0.0%); YT (14, 45.0%); NL (44, 6.2%); BC (434, 69.1%); AB (790, 63.0%)
JHU new case records in most recent data: Brazil (87843), Colombia (17576), Czechia (17773, 2-day record streak), Eritrea (193), Estonia (1084), Indonesia (9321, 2-day record streak), Japan (7563, 3-day record streak), Lebanon (4774, 3-day record streak), Malawi (274), Malaysia (3027, 2-day record streak), Monaco (40, 3-day record streak), Mongolia (87), United Arab Emirates (2988, 3-day record streak).
2021-01-07
Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: U.K. (102HI→104HI), California (116HI→113HI), Israel (142HI→131HI), New York (144HI→144HI), Alabama (155HI→155HI), Louisiana (174HI→171HI), U.S. (178HI→176HI), South Africa (210HI→206HI), Ontario (207HI→208HI), Toronto (234HI→236HI), Malta (260HI→247HI), Canada (250HI→250HI), Italy (304HI→320HI), France (399HI→322HI), Brazil (503HI→450HI), Turkey (471HI→484HI), Spain (494HI→494HI), Mexico (545HI→536HI), Singapore (7086HI→6990HI), Norway (4→0), Malaysia (52→50), Thailand (91→89), Japan (105→97), Indonesia (124→122), South Korea (153→164), New Zealand (1342→1811), Australia (2769→3089)
Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.
Much worse: Israel, South Africa, Malta, France, Norway, Japan
Worse: California, Louisiana, U.S., Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia
Better: U.K., New York, Alabama, Ontario, Toronto, Canada, Italy, South Korea
Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Denmark (282→301, 66.3%), Germany (870→569, 80.6%), Romania (541→599, 42.3%), India (642→748, 22.4%), Iran (926→803, 63.8%), China (654→944, 2.1%), Sweden (new→4820, 97.2%), Austria (16014→21422, 26.8%), Poland (4069→38227, 51.6%)
Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (75): Marshall Islands, Samoa, Vanuatu (eradicated); Grenada (14, 35.7%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Laos (14, 6.2%); Liberia (14, 63.0%); Niger (14, 91.2%); Solomon Islands (14, 38.6%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 54.5%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (24, 18.2%); Papua New Guinea (26, 15.0%); Tajikistan (27, 5.5%); Benin (53, 9.1%); Sao Tome and Principe (67, 6.5%); Mauritius (71, 5.9%); Azerbaijan (110, 28.5%); Belize (125, 11.1%); Georgia (138, 25.6%); Luxembourg (141, 31.1%); Uzbekistan (143, 11.4%); Mauritania (163, 55.9%); Equatorial Guinea (177, 1.8%); Iceland (265, 10.1%); Guyana (268, 25.6%); Moldova (279, 48.0%); Djibouti (284, 1.5%); Kyrgyzstan (288, 24.0%); Saudi Arabia (288, 3.5%); Trinidad and Tobago (300, 15.3%); Jordan (313, 18.3%); Armenia (315, 27.8%); Nepal (316, 11.0%); Jamaica (349, 51.8%); Kosovo (361, 55.5%); West Bank and Gaza (371, 65.8%); Taiwan (372, 42.4%); Croatia (387, 27.6%); Burundi (392, 71.2%); Morocco (421, 41.6%); Iraq (432, 59.8%); Sudan (445, 70.0%); Madagascar (506, 5.7%); North Macedonia (506, 75.3%); Yemen (556, 15.3%); Sri Lanka (569, 77.0%); Mali (576, 89.4%); Libya (582, 83.1%); Belarus (672, 77.0%); Paraguay (816, 82.4%); Liechtenstein (827, 61.1%); Burma (1077, 70.5%); Guatemala (1132, 35.5%); Finland (1226, 54.3%); Uganda (1248, 85.5%); Philippines (1581, 27.3%); Ukraine (1595, 85.9%); Serbia (2042, 84.4%); Eritrea (2167, 97.7%); Bulgaria (2405, 81.8%); Kenya (3112, 55.4%); Syria (3151, 97.6%); Bangladesh (3331, 46.1%); Somalia (3401, 82.9%); Hungary (3419, 82.0%); Netherlands (4153, 97.7%); Lithuania (4392, 96.7%); Algeria (4699, 97.9%); Pakistan (5474, 32.6%); Central African Republic (7648, 63.7%); Ecuador (9103, 41.3%); Belgium (11206, 65.2%); Estonia (20765, 95.1%); Peru (20919, 12.8%)
Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (9): GU (162, 5.5%); NC (313, 63.7%); MT (492, 22.2%); PR (760, 68.3%); PA (902, 82.7%); MS (1272, 82.4%); MP (1477, 98.0%); OH (2261, 76.4%); ID (23159, 96.7%)
Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (6): NT (5, 0.0%); YT (14, 30.0%); NL (40, 6.2%); BC (471, 68.1%); AB (904, 63.7%); SK (2610, 60.6%)
JHU new case records in most recent data: Czechia (17332), Dominica (17), Indonesia (8854), Ireland (7832), Japan (5950, 2-day record streak), Lebanon (4166, 2-day record streak), Lesotho (931), Malaysia (2593), Malta (224), Monaco (31, 2-day record streak), Nigeria (1664, 3-day record streak), Panama (5186), Portugal (10027), Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (16, 2-day record streak), Slovenia (3354), South Africa (21832), United Arab Emirates (2067, 2-day record streak), United Kingdom (62556, 3-day record streak), Uruguay (944).
2021-01-06
Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: U.K. (104HI→102HI), California (116HI→116HI), Israel (146HI→142HI), New York (144HI→144HI), Alabama (151HI→155HI), Sweden (164HI→164HI), Louisiana (173HI→174HI), U.S. (178HI→178HI), Ontario (207HI→207HI), South Africa (215HI→210HI), Toronto (222HI→234HI), Canada (250HI→250HI), Malta (288HI→260HI), Italy (313HI→304HI), France (399HI→399HI), Spain (494HI→494HI), Brazil (517HI→503HI), Mexico (85HI→545HI), Singapore (7221HI→7086HI), Norway (4→4), Malaysia (54→52), Thailand (92→91), Japan (108→105), Indonesia (126→124), South Korea (149→153), New Zealand (1342→1342), Australia (2538→2769)
Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.
Much worse: Israel, South Africa, Malta, Italy
Worse: U.K., Malaysia, Japan, Indonesia
The same: Thailand
Better: California, New York, Alabama, Sweden, Louisiana, U.S., Ontario, Toronto, Canada, Norway, South Korea
Much better: Mexico
Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Denmark (287→282, 67.7%), Romania (468→541, 41.8%), India (606→642, 22.4%), China (631→654, 2.1%), Germany (980→870, 80.2%), Iran (918→926, 65.9%), Turkey (458→1190, 7.1%), Poland (4846→4069, 50.5%), Austria (309428→16014, 26.2%)
Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (72): Marshall Islands, Samoa, Vanuatu (eradicated); Brunei (14, 18.9%); Dominica (14, 17.9%); Grenada (14, 35.7%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Laos (14, 6.2%); Liberia (14, 63.0%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Solomon Islands (14, 38.6%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 54.5%); Mauritius (20, 3.2%); Papua New Guinea (26, 15.0%); Tajikistan (41, 8.2%); Sao Tome and Principe (49, 6.2%); Georgia (102, 21.4%); Belize (108, 11.0%); Azerbaijan (111, 31.1%); Benin (122, 9.1%); Equatorial Guinea (123, 2.0%); Liechtenstein (135, 49.5%); Luxembourg (135, 30.8%); Uzbekistan (141, 11.9%); Finland (144, 51.3%); Iceland (158, 8.9%); Mauritania (162, 57.1%); Trinidad and Tobago (199, 15.3%); Guyana (217, 25.6%); Croatia (251, 23.4%); Saudi Arabia (276, 3.6%); Jamaica (284, 51.6%); Kyrgyzstan (284, 24.6%); Jordan (292, 18.5%); Moldova (303, 49.2%); Nepal (320, 11.2%); Taiwan (325, 42.8%); Morocco (334, 42.5%); Armenia (351, 29.1%); West Bank and Gaza (358, 67.9%); Kosovo (361, 55.5%); Yemen (381, 15.5%); Sudan (383, 70.0%); Iraq (468, 61.5%); Belarus (500, 76.9%); Madagascar (506, 5.7%); Libya (700, 85.8%); Sri Lanka (738, 79.6%); Paraguay (798, 82.7%); Pakistan (825, 32.3%); Burma (856, 70.6%); North Macedonia (905, 80.1%); Philippines (1256, 26.5%); Uganda (1334, 86.0%); Peru (1523, 12.5%); Ukraine (1560, 88.0%); Kenya (1625, 56.6%); Serbia (1924, 84.7%); Mali (2493, 89.1%); Hungary (2627, 81.4%); Syria (2709, 97.5%); Bangladesh (2784, 46.1%); Guatemala (2957, 34.7%); Bulgaria (3114, 82.1%); Ecuador (4389, 37.3%); Netherlands (5503, 97.9%); Algeria (6048, 98.3%); Niger (7363, 90.5%); Belgium (8394, 65.0%); Namibia (9784, 88.3%); Bahamas (13966, 63.7%)
Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (10): GU (88, 5.2%); NC (257, 57.1%); PR (339, 66.0%); VI (504, 35.3%); MT (739, 22.2%); PA (961, 84.8%); OH (1508, 75.1%); TN (1779, 80.8%); MP (4474, 99.3%); ID (32360, 96.3%)
Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (8): NT (6, 0.0%); YT (14, 25.0%); PE (36, 20.0%); NL (52, 7.3%); NS (56, 4.1%); BC (512, 69.2%); AB (732, 63.5%); SK (1433, 64.1%)
JHU new case records in most recent data: Colombia (16835), Comoros (131), Japan (4946), Lebanon (3620), Monaco (30), Nigeria (1354, 2-day record streak), Saint Vincent and the Grenadines (9), United Arab Emirates (1967), United Kingdom (61087, 2-day record streak), Zimbabwe (1365).
2021-01-05
Today's pre-peak days-to-one-percent infection numbers: Mexico (540HI→85HI), U.K. (104HI→104HI), California (114HI→116HI), New York (145HI→144HI), Israel (150HI→146HI), Alabama (159HI→151HI), Sweden (157HI→164HI), Louisiana (176HI→173HI), U.S. (180HI→178HI), Ontario (211HI→207HI), South Africa (224HI→215HI), Toronto (215HI→222HI), Canada (290HI→250HI), Malta (302HI→288HI), France (435HI→399HI), Spain (494HI→494HI), Brazil (510HI→517HI), Singapore (7783HI→7221HI), Norway (4→4), Malaysia (55→54), Thailand (105→92), Japan (113→108), Indonesia (125→126), South Korea (143→149), New Zealand (1266→1342), Australia (2568→2538)
Compared to yesterday, here's how the regions that are within a year of 1% are doing.
Much worse: Mexico, Israel, Alabama, Ontario, South Africa, Canada, Malta, Thailand, Japan
Worse: Louisiana, U.S.
The same: New York, Malaysia
Better: U.K., California, Sweden, Toronto, Norway, Indonesia, South Korea
Today's post-peak days-to-eradication numbers for regions of interest: Denmark (237→287, 70.2%), Turkey (387→458, 6.7%), Romania (283→468, 41.8%), India (959→606, 22.7%), China (599→631, 2.1%), Iran (912→918, 66.7%), Germany (526→980, 82.7%), Poland (10226→4846, 51.0%), Italy (new→11742, 80.2%), Austria (5863→309428, 26.9%)
Days to eradication for other post-peak countries (77): Marshall Islands, Samoa, Vanuatu (eradicated); Brunei (14, 18.9%); Dominica (14, 17.9%); Fiji (14, 24.5%); Holy See (14, 48.2%); Laos (14, 6.2%); Liberia (14, 63.0%); Saint Kitts and Nevis (14, 18.2%); Solomon Islands (14, 38.6%); Tanzania (14, 42.8%); Timor-Leste (14, 54.5%); Mauritius (20, 3.2%); Papua New Guinea (26, 15.0%); Grenada (31, 35.7%); Gambia (52, 0.4%); Tajikistan (53, 10.1%); Georgia (61, 15.2%); Guinea-Bissau (77, 1.5%); Sao Tome and Principe (78, 7.4%); Iceland (107, 8.1%); Belize (108, 12.1%); Azerbaijan (113, 33.8%); Guyana (119, 24.2%); Equatorial Guinea (123, 2.0%); Luxembourg (135, 30.3%); Uzbekistan (140, 12.6%); Liechtenstein (152, 51.5%); Mauritania (196, 61.8%); Trinidad and Tobago (196, 15.7%); Croatia (212, 23.3%); Taiwan (231, 42.4%); Yemen (236, 15.5%); Kyrgyzstan (275, 25.4%); Jordan (287, 19.2%); Saudi Arabia (299, 3.6%); Armenia (333, 30.6%); Nepal (333, 11.3%); West Bank and Gaza (339, 70.3%); Jamaica (349, 54.1%); Moldova (356, 50.0%); Morocco (361, 42.8%); Kosovo (387, 58.3%); Togo (395, 23.5%); Djibouti (399, 1.6%); Sudan (422, 73.2%); Finland (432, 66.9%); Belarus (439, 75.4%); Madagascar (506, 5.7%); Sri Lanka (527, 79.2%); Iraq (530, 63.3%); Burma (672, 70.5%); Paraguay (753, 82.9%); Pakistan (756, 34.2%); Libya (785, 87.5%); North Macedonia (839, 80.1%); Philippines (1073, 25.5%); Ecuador (1283, 34.2%); Kenya (1413, 56.2%); Uganda (1429, 86.2%); Ukraine (1553, 90.4%); Serbia (1671, 85.0%); Oman (2154, 24.5%); Bulgaria (2294, 82.1%); Hungary (2313, 81.5%); Bangladesh (2564, 46.1%); Syria (2565, 97.6%); Mongolia (2875, 93.2%); Colombia (2936, 53.0%); Belgium (7673, 65.0%); Algeria (7890, 98.6%); Guatemala (9939, 33.7%); Albania (11663, 92.9%); Mali (14438, 88.8%); Netherlands (16409, 98.2%); Ethiopia (28520, 34.4%)
Days to eradication for other post-peak U.S. states and territories (10): GU (49, 4.8%); VI (104, 31.5%); PR (213, 63.6%); NC (247, 52.6%); MP (477, 94.0%); MT (710, 22.2%); PA (1034, 86.8%); OH (1324, 76.0%); TN (6193, 83.3%); ID (18071, 95.7%)
Days to eradication for other post-peak Canadian provinces and territories (8): NT (7, 0.0%); YT (14, 25.0%); NL (43, 6.8%); NS (139, 5.8%); BC (306, 72.3%); SK (526, 63.5%); AB (636, 65.5%); MB (14840, 51.1%)
JHU new case records in most recent data: Afghanistan (1485), Costa Rica (3115), Cuba (316), Ireland (6110, 4-day record streak), Nigeria (1271), United Kingdom (58923).